[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231258
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20
NNE FAR 45 W RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
LCH 10 NW LCH 40 SE POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN
35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE
MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 N GFK
...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35 SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30
WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 30 E UNO 55 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE
LUL 10 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR
35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 35
ENE LWS 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA...

...MN...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
SPREAD QUICKLY NWD ACROSS IA AND MN. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS
NRN MN. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN IA OR SRN MN AS ASCENT
RAPIDLY INCREASES. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND NRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOMEWHAT TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY
ACROSS MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN SHOW 500
TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 50 KT WILL PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER-TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SPEEDS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS MAINLY
NEAR PEAK HEATING. AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES NWD INTO SRN
CANADA AND INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.

...SRN LA...
TROPICAL STORM IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE LA COAST AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN
WWD MOVEMENT. WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE BACKED
TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-1 KM
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS
ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND IVAN MOVE INLAND
TODAY ACROSS FAR SRN LA. TROPICAL STORM IVAN WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SE TX WITH THE NRN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER SECTIONS
OF SW LA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TORNADO THREAT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SRN LA.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.