[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230602
SWODY1
SPC AC 230556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
ELO 40 NE MSP 30 NNE OTG 25 NW BKX 10 ENE FAR 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN
35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 60 N CDS 45 ESE P28 45 NNE ICT 30 NW MHK 50 WNW
CNK 35 W EAR 30 N ANW 15 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35
SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30 WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 15 ENE
UNO 45 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT...
65 SSE DRT 25 SW NIR 35 N VCT 10 N CLL 25 NW ACT 15 ENE BWD 25 N JCT
25 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BIL 10 NNW SHR
35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 ENE VEL 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 40
ENE LWS 50 SE FCA GTF 20 NNW BIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITHIN DIVERGENT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING THE
DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
ERN SD/WRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA AND INTO SE KS.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT FROM ERN SD SWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL INCREASE ALONG PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT THAT IS LOCATED WITHIN
DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THE ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING
WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY
ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTIVE LINES.

PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ADVANCING LINE OVER CNTRL/NRN
MN...SOME SURFACE HEATING MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG. UPSTREAM FROM
CONVECTIVE LINE IN DRY SLOT REGION ACROSS SWRN MN...NW IA AND ERN
SD...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELLS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.