[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE
AMA 55 N CDS 45 SW LBB 40 N HOB 45 SSW CVS 50 NE AMA 65 ENE AMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 30 W HOB
30 N ROW 30 SSE DHT 20 NW DHT 35 NW RTN 25 WNW COS 40 ESE CYS 55 ENE
SNY EAR 45 WNW OFK 35 E FAR 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE
MSP 40 S FOD OJC 35 ENE BVO 50 E OKC 30 NNW FTW TPL 15 SSW CLL 30
NNE HOU 10 ENE BPT 25 NNW LFT 30 E BTR 20 S GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME E CNTRL NM THROUGH
PARTS OF NW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN MN SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL KS...THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL NM NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
FROM ERN NM INTO NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF HIGH PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IN THIS
AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH STRONGEST STORMS...
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 04Z FROM
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX. STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE ARE
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED COLD FRONT...BUT MAY STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH FROM
ERN NM INTO NW TX WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE BASED NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.


WITH TIME...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD
AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT
PERSIST BEYOND ABOUT 04Z.

..DIAL.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.