[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW
30 NNE LVS 30 NNW SAF 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E
RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW
INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM
40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S
POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO TO NRN NM...WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT
MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVIDENT IN
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE NNEWD INTO WRN KS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SSWWD TO WRN KS /JUST E OF DDC/ TO THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE...AND THEN WSWWD TO THE NORTH OF AMA TO JUST S OF TCC
BEFORE CURVING NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  DRY SWLY
FLOW ACROSS NM HAS ALLOWED THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE TO MIX EWD WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SERN NM/FAR SW
TX.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG...STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  THUS...WEAK UPPER FORCING AND WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN NM INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  THIS THREAT WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION.

..PETERS.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.