[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221619
SWODY1
SPC AC 221614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW
30 NNE LVS 55 ENE 4SL 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E
RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW
INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM
40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S
POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY TONIGHT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DRIER SW FLOW
ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO CNTRL NM WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL PUSH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EWD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE STRONGEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PORTIONS OF ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. 

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM THIS
MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A NARROW AXIS OF ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY FROM SW OF DHT
TO AROUND HOB. IN THIS AREA...MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG
WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 8-9 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ETA FORECASTS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION/INSTABILITY FARTHER EWD...AND THIS
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST THAT IF STORMS CAN FORM...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH IN
SPACE AND TIME PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES.

..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.