[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220100
SWODY1
SPC AC 220055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PIE 15 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 E TCS
35 S ABQ 20 SSE 4SL 40 NNE GUP 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 35 NNE BCE 55
WNW PUC 30 W RKS 40 NW LAR DEN 15 SE LIC 25 NNW IML 35 S 9V9 20 NNW
BKX 40 SE AXN 25 NNW MSP 20 NW RST 25 ENE FOD 25 E SLN 30 SSE GAG 65
NNE BGS DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE 35 WNW NIR
50 SSW CLL 25 NE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO WRN KS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT. 
EWD MOVEMENT IS BEING LIMITED BY BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE UPPER FLOW
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY OR EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. EARLY EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE AND
THEN WNWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO.  A SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS /JUST S OF HLC/...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT AND A
WAA PROFILE EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.  MORE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAINTAINING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. 
THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

GIVEN THAT STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOW AT BEST.

..PETERS.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.