[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
CNM 15 NNW GDP 50 NNW GDP 45 W ROW 65 NE 4CR 40 WNW TCC 20 N TCC 35
ENE TCC 50 NE CVS 40 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB 30 NNW INK 30 S CNM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 30 NNW ALM
45 SSE SAF 30 WNW LVS 55 N SAF 35 ESE FMN 40 WSW CEZ 25 NNE U28 40 N
VEL 35 ENE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW
20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 35 WNW OTM 30
ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 60 WSW JCT 35 SSE JCT 25 S
AUS 30 NNW HOU 30 NE BPT 10 S BTR 10 SSW MOB 10 SSE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM...W TX...

...ERN NM/W TX...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INVERTED LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE
TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND TEMPS IN THE 80S F THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORM
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND
MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
DRIFTS EWD.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO ERN
NM AND FAR W TX...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS THE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY
STEEP AROUND PEAK HEATING. A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE TX/NM
STATE-LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.