[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211954
SWODY1
SPC AC 211949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 55 NE SAD
45 W ONM 25 SSW 4SL 20 WSW FMN 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 25 ENE CDC 20 SE
DPG 25 SSW EVW 40 WNW CAG 10 W 4FC 35 SW AKO 25 NNW IML 15 ENE 9V9
25 E ATY 35 W DLH 30 SW IWD 35 NW LSE 10 W MCW 40 NNW FNB 25 E SLN
35 SE GAG 70 NE BGS 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 WNW MFE 30 SSE SAT 15
WSW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 25 N PIE 15 N MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NM AND WEST TX...
STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TX NWD INTO ERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SIMILAR DCAPE
VALUES...A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN INITIATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. EXPECT
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD FRONT/THERMAL
TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN NM WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ABOUT 25KT PER LATEST TCU PROFILER DATA...SUGGESTS THAT THE
BULK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN
NATURE WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS REMAINING RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
WHILE A COUPLE OF SEVERE REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...STORM COVERAGE AND
EVENT DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

...TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN KS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE RETREATING GRADUALLY NWD/WWD FROM
EXTREME SERN CO ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND
MIXING OCCUR IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS NWD
ACROSS WRN KS. A PREFRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WAVE WERE EVIDENT OVER WRN KS ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MOST
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AS
TSTMS INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN/WRN KS MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED/MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH SOME CHANCE OF A
COUPLE HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING SHEAR
WITH SWD EXTENT.

...S FL...
ACARS AND VWP DATA WERE INDICATING WIND DIRECTION VEERS STRONGLY
WITH HEIGHT ACROSS S FL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONGER FLOW
REQUIRED FOR GREATER SHEAR/HELICITY...AND A SUPERCELL THREAT...WAS
SITUATED OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING WERE MARGINAL. WHILE A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY
ACQUIRE ROTATION WITHIN A THE SMALL AREA WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY COINCIDE...TORNADO PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.

..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.