[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211536
SWODY1
SPC AC 211531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CMX 45 WSW RHI
15 ENE DSM 30 ENE STJ 25 ENE END 25 WNW SPS 35 ESE SJT 65 SSE DRT
...CONT... 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE
PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW
30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 10 NE ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 45 ESE COT 60 W
HOU 25 NE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SSEWD
MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TAIL END OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING AND PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIKELY AID IN SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM.

UPSLOPE...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF
RELATIVELY MOIST GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DESPITE MIXING EFFECTS.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY / MLCAPES FROM
500-1500 J/KG /.  COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND FROM STRONGER CELLS.  OTHER STRONG
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY
MOVE NEWD OVER COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

...UT/CO/NRN NM...
POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY AND ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.  THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWBURSTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.