[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211254
SWODY1
SPC AC 211249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IWD 45 NNE RST
30 SSE FOD FNB 10 N END 25 S LTS 40 WSW SJT 45 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60
E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA
15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30
ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 40 S ALI NIR
10 NNW VCT 20 WSW HOU 30 SSW BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEB AND ERN CO WILL MOVE SWD
TODAY REACHING FAR SE NEB AND WCNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG
LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN
NEB EXTENDING SSWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EWD AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD TODAY...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S F IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S F...YIELDING SBCAPE
VALUES OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS WAIT TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT
APPEARS A LATER STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
WITH A LINE ORGANIZING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL
PROBABLY BE NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL WINDS PARALLELING
THE BOUNDARY.

A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP
CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF DUE TO
THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS
CELLS INITIATE AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.