[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210525
SWODY1
SPC AC 210519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS
40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35
WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE
AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 25 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NW IWD 40 WSW EAU
35 NNW DSM FNB 25 NW END 25 SW LTS 40 ENE BGS 70 WSW SJT 35 ESE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z ETA/GFS AGREE THAT A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST AND ROCKIES.  IN FACT...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE ERN RIDGE WILL
ALLOW THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE REST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT LIES BENEATH SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CO AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD TO
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN/ERN NM TO CENTRAL KS...
A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM WEST TX/FAR ERN NM NEWD...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS INTO KS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. 
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM/ WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT
THE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/.  GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 09/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.