[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191954
SWODY1
SPC AC 191949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 40 SSW STC
15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SE CDS 50 NNE JCT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP
...CONT... 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC 25 E SGU 25 E ELY 45 SSW NFL 10 SSE
SCK 40 S UKI ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 25 W S06 20 E S80 30 NNE LWT 70
ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY 55 E FMY 20
WNW VRB 25 E ORL 15 SE DAB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UT / SWRN WY...
STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING -- ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL JET -- CONTINUES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT INTO WRN WY
ATTM...WHERE MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. MEANWHILE...DRYING
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN AZ / SRN
AND CENTRAL UT.  

MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY / ORGANIZATION
ACROSS UT / AZ DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  WITH DRYING /
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT TO REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
-- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL / NERN UT SWD. 

...ND / NRN SD...
ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE -- AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS
-- THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ATTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACH OF WRN U.S. JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.

..GOSS.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.