[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200048
SWODY1
SPC AC 200043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 40 E ABR ANW 30 NE AIA 25 NW CDR 25 SSW REJ 15 NNW Y22 30 SE P24
60 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 15 SSE PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN PRC 25 W
4BL U28 40 SSE SLC 35 SSW ENV 60 WNW ELY TPH FAT 40 ENE MRY 20 NNW
UKI 35 ENE MFR 50 SSW RDM RDM PDT 40 ENE LWS 50 SW 3DU 20 ESE BTM 15
E BZN 15 NNE BIL 10 SE MLS 35 SSE SDY 75 NW MOT ...CONT... 35 W INL
45 S BJI BKX GRI 35 S RSL 25 ESE GAG SJT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS...

...ND/SD...
HIGHER BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SWRN SD AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND INTO ND OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WY MOVES NEWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW MUCAPES RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT MORE IMPRESSIVE
ARE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AS LOW AS 1 
KM AGL. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SOME OF
THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SEVERE GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT A 15% WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...CENTRAL CA...
DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DIURNAL HEATING...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND VORTICITY MAX IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LIFT/MOISTURE/AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK CAPE AND
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

...UT/WRN WY...
DESPITE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WAS TOO STRONG TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. APPEARS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS OVER...SO 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE DROPPED.

..IMY.. 09/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.