[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191637
SWODY1
SPC AC 191632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
SGU 15 NW MLF 15 NNE DPG 15 NW OGD EVW 15 W VEL 10 SE CNY 25 WNW 4BL
20 SSW U17 45 WNW PGA 15 ENE SGU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC
15 W SGU 35 NW P38 40 NNE BIH MER 15 SSW SFO ...CONT... 45 NE 63S 15
NW PUW 25 ENE S80 35 WNW LWT 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 20 W ANJ 25 SSW
MTW 20 SSE LNR 20 NW RST 15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SSE CDS 35 NNE SJT
20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 40 WNW PBI
20 WNW VRB 15 NE ORL 40 NNW DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF UT...

...UT/WRN CO/NRN AZ AREA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS A JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS UT TODAY WITH PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD DEEP
MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF JAVIER...IS PRESENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM AZ NWD INTO UT/WRN CO/WY.  AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL
INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TODAY.  HOWEVER...VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE  MOISTURE PLUME
WITHIN THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF WRN UT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...AND IT IS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT LOCAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.  VERY
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION
GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...WHICH SUGGESTS A
HIGHER CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF UT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  A NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
PRESENT ATTM FROM SERN ID INTO NWRN UT...AND WE WILL MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY FOR POSSIBLE SWD EXTENSION INTO SWRN UT.  IF THIS
OCCURS...STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO AZ...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE BUT MORE
LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SWRN AZ WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS
STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AZ.

...DAKOTAS...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A CAP WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WRN
ND/NWRN SD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PREDICT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE LAPSE RATES WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
AOB 1000 J/KG) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
TONIGHT...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.