[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191253
SWODY1
SPC AC 191248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
GUP 80 SE PGA 25 WSW U17 20 WNW 4HV 20 ESE PUC 40 SSE VEL 40 NE GJT
25 WSW GUC 40 ESE DRO 40 W 4SL 25 NW GUP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 65 NNW 3TH
40 N 3TH 60 NNE 3DU 25 S GTF 35 WNW LWT 50 N LWT 65 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE IPL 40 NW EED
55 SW P38 60 ESE U31 30 E LOL 35 E SVE 50 WNW SVE 30 W RBL 30 NNW
UKI 40 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 35 N PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 15 N GRB 20
W JVL 25 WSW UIN 30 S IRK 25 NE LWD 20 NNW DSM 35 ESE MKT 20 SW MSP
30 N MKT 25 NW FRM 20 NE LNK 20 NE HUT 35 WSW END 25 NNW LTS 25 S
CDS 50 SE LBB 65 SW SJT 50 NNE DRT 45 WSW HDO LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE AZ...NW
NM...ERN UT AND WRN CO...

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING A STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS MOST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOME TODAY. STILL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE. THE INSTABILITY WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF AZ. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 65 TO 75 KT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS SE UT...SW CO...NE AZ AND NW
NM. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND HAVE A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SWRN AZ WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 C/KM. MID-LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN ACROSS
NRN AZ...UT AND WRN CO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND SFC
TEMPS WARM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH...MOVES NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

...DAKOTAS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD BE HELD BACK TIL THIS EVENING. THE UPPER-TROUGH
OVER THE WRN STATES WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EWD TODAY  WITH A MID-LEVEL
JET OF 60 KT SWINGING EWD AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORM INITIATION MOST LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR RAPID CITY AND
ACROSS WCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BASES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB. THE STORMS
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO ND BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL BUT DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT
AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL.

..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.