[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190053
SWODY1
SPC AC 190048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ SGU 40 SSE
SLC 35 N RKS 25 S CPR 55 N CYS 45 NNE LHX ROW 30 S DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SUX 45 SW AXN
50 E FAR 45 ENE BJI 50 WSW IWD 20 NW RFD SPI 35 NW TBN 30 SSE OJC 40
S OMA 30 NNE SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 65 E LWT
45 NW COD 15 WNW 27U 70 E BKE 15 SSE LMT 30 NNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 30 NW BWD
40 N MWL 50 NNW FTW DAL 25 SSW LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ/SRN CA...
DAYTIME HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS HAS MOSTLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GREATLY REDUCED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
IN SRN CA AND WRN AZ WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER.
STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN THIS AREA...BUT ANY STORM WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL 03-04Z...THUS A 5% WIND
PROBABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY WEST
OF THE AREA...WARM ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. WITH STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL RANGE
FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. THE NEGATIVE FOR SEVERE IS THE SHEAR ABOVE 700
MB WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE 
HAIL.

..IMY.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.