[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181941
SWODY1
SPC AC 181936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
YUM 35 NNW BLH 10 SSW SGU 25 SSW BCE 20 ENE PGA 30 NNW SAD 10 SSW
DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL
55 S ELY 15 NW TPH 25 S NFL 20 NW BAM 55 NNE WMC 25 NE RBL 50 SSW
EKA ...CONT... 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30 NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25
NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS
60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CNK 45 ENE SUX
10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 E RHI 40 W CGX 35 NE ALN 20 SW UNO 30 NNW
FSM 40 SSW ICT 45 W CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...

...SWRN CONUS...
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S/ IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS SRN AND WRN AZ AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD.  

FAIRLY LARGE / VIGOROUS STORM HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN MOJAVE COUNTY...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE INCREASING
ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ ATTM.  FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2246.

GIVEN LARGE-SCALE UVV INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO EXIST
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WITH SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING
FROM W-E ACROSS THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND INTO
FAR SRN US FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THIS REGION
AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH...ALL
MODELS HINT AT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA / SERN
MN / WRN WI / NWRN IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION.

CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. 
HOWEVER...FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL.

..GOSS.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.