[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181616
SWODY1
SPC AC 181611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30
NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25 NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP
...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL 55 ESE U31 15 W EKO 55 NNE WMC 25 NE
RBL 50 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS
60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE HSI 45 ENE SUX
10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 ENE AUW 20 N MMO 15 NNE STL 50 ESE TBN 20
SSW UMN 15 WSW EMP 40 ESE HSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S WAL 25 SSE BWI
15 ENE ABE 30 S RUT 10 S PWM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN LONG ISLAND/EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IS LOCATED OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW IS ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND EXTREME SERN MA.  THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.  ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AS A
BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS BAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD...WITH THE THREAT
ENDING BY 00Z AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE.  

...SWRN UT INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AREA...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM JAVIER IS SPREADING NWD OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITHIN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SERN
CA/WRN AZ ACROSS SERN NV INTO UT WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIMITED.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ETA/GFS AND SREF OUTPUT ALL INDICATE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SERN CA AND WRN AZ...SPREADING NWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN
NV/SWRN UT AND NRN AZ TONIGHT AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. 
GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM OVER MO/ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY.  THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
MODELS INDICATE A CAP WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A BETTER
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE
OF THE CAP AFTER 06Z FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWD INTO ERN IA/NWRN IL. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTING THREAT
FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW LATE PERIOD STORMS.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.