[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181300
SWODY1
SPC AC 181255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 E RAL 20
NNE LAX 10 S PMD 20 WSW DAG 30 N DAG 60 S EKO 30 SSE BYI 60 NE BOI
65 WSW BNO 60 NW UKI ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 55 NE BIL 25 SSW COD 35 S
LND 30 NE CAG ASE 45 ESE GUC 40 W TAD 15 SSE TAD 40 E RTN 45 WSW CAO
30 E LVS 65 NE 4CR 10 SW ROW CNM 55 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 40 W LBB
40 E DHT 55 WSW GAG 50 W CSM 40 SSE CDS 20 NNE SEP 55 NNE CLL 25 NE
HOU GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL LNK 25 ESE MSP 55
NE EAU 35 E AUW 30 SW PIA 40 SSW STL 35 WNW UNO 35 S UMN 30 NNW BVO
RSL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL NHK DCA 25 WNW
BWI ALB PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES/SHIFT INLAND OVER PACIFIC NW AND DEEP-LAYER
REMAINS OF IVAN MOVE EWD OFF MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER COASTAL REGIONS.
 IN BETWEEN...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN GULF NWD ACROSS MO TO MN.  SFC
CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL INCLUDE WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH
IS STALLING...AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH SFC CYCLONE. 
MEANWHILE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/SRN
NEB...ERN/NRN KS AND WRN/SRN MO.

...MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND NJ FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STABILIZES AIR MASS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER 12Z OKX RAOB...WITH 0-1 KM
SHEARS 25-30 KT AND SRH AROUND 200 J/KG THROUGH SAME LAYER.  EXPECT
WEAK CONVECTIVE FORCING...HOWEVER...TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF DISCRETE
TSTMS...AND SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER MOST
OR ALL THE FAVORABLE AIR MASS MOVES OFFSHORE.  MARGINAL TORNADO AND
CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN FOR A SHORT TIME.

...MO/KS...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY STILL PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
EPISODICALLY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SYSTEM-RELATIVE FLOW
WEAKENS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN COUPLING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM AND RELATIVELY
HIGH RH NEAR BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
COMPLEX...AND ANY SUCH CONVECTION ALSO MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. 
HOWEVER...PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW
AND VERY CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING.

...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ...
CONTINUED NWD/NNEWD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE TODAY...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH ORIGINS IN FORMER HURRICANE JAVIER.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING
BUOYANCY ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
FCST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH.  GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED ON WESTERN GRADIENT OF
RETURNING MOISTURE...AMIDST GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 
MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY PRODUCE WINDS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.