[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152002
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
MOB 40 E LUL 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG MGR 40 WNW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ
HTL GRR BEH SPI TBN 40 NW SGF OJC 20 NW MLI LSE MSP 35 WSW DLH DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV
30 NNW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 35 WSW
BVE JAN UOX 55 SE BNA AHN 45 S CAE CRE ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 35 W INK
MKC 30 NW MLI 10 WSW LSE 20 SSE MSP 40 ENE RWF 30 ESE AXN 35 NNW BRD
30 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL
PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/IA CONTINUES TO
EJECT NEWD ACROSS LS REGION TOWARD NWRN ONT.  AS THIS
OCCURS...ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM OVER E-CENTRAL
MN -- WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH SYSTEM ALOFT.  SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER MN/IA/KS...AND SEWD OVER OK AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL MOVE INLAND INVOF MOB BAY
BETWEEN 16/06Z-12Z...BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
REF WW 8245 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS
REGARDING PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF
WI.  BOTH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT -- WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS -- ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER
S...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO MO. VWP DATA AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM MO RIVER NWD.  REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 2216 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  CONVECTION THIS FAR S
SHOULD BE TIED MORE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.  ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES WITH SWWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS
MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.

...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
REF SPC WW 823 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM INFORMATION RELATED TO OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. 
IVAN HAS A LARGE WIND ENVELOPE...AND AS THIS SPREADS PROGRESSIVELY
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG OVER THIS
AREA...VERY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEARS -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400
J/KG -- WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.