[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160044
SWODY1
SPC AC 160039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
MOB 25 ESE MEI TCL BHM 10 ESE ANB 30 ENE LGC 25 ENE ABY 25 S CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BVE 40 NNW LUL
50 WSW CBM TUP 35 ESE MKL 25 SW BNA CHA AHN AGS 25 WNW CHS 35 SSW
FLO 25 NW ILM 35 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE DAY JBR TXK 10 NE
BWD SJT 40 S LBB AMA 30 SSW GAG END SZL MLI JVL MKE IMT 10 WNW IWD
ELO 30 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL AND FL
PANHANDLE/SW GA...

...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA...
HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS NWD TRACK TOWARD THE AL GULF
COAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.
IN SPITE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- NAMELY
IN NE QUADRANT OF IVAN -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST PERIPHERAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1
KM SRH OF 200-500 MS/S2 AND 0-1 SHEAR OF 35 KTS OR GREATER...AS
EVIDENT IN STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH IN 00Z TLH RAOB.

REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST DETAILS ON
TORNADO HAZARD.

...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION DECELERATES ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/OZARKS. OVERALL DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF EVENING OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND ONLY GLANCING BACKGROUND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH SWD EXTENT.
THUS ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED REMAINDER
OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

..GUYER/KERR.. 09/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.