[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151612
SWODY1
SPC AC 151607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR 35 SE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
ANJ 30 WSW HTL 30 NNE BEH 15 W MMO 30 ENE OTM 35 SSE MCW MSP 65 ENE
STC 55 NNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 W INK 15
SW LBB 40 ENE GAG 20 S FNB 25 NW DSM 25 NW MCW 15 NNW MKT 10 WNW STC
35 NE BRD 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV 30 NNW ARG 45
NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 45 W HUM 35 ENE HEZ
35 SSW UOX 45 NW MSL 50 SE BNA 40 SE TYS HKY 30 W DAN 20 S SHD 40 E
EKN 30 NNE HGR 20 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CTB 55 NE MSO
55 ENE S80 25 SW LWS 35 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY/NRN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA...

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL JET EJECTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE-TILT INTO WRN
ONTARIO.  WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM LOW CENTER INTO
THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATER TODAY.  WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE HEATING
OCCURS.  MORNING MODELS CONSISTENT IN INCREASING BAND OF
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY ELEVATED FROM ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT WITHIN CLEAR SLOT JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WHERE
HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AND CAP WEAKEST /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2214/. 
SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...VERY STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS/LINES
WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  SEVERE
THREAT COULD START BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MN/ERN IA/NRN IL/WRN WI. ANY
ENSUING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE...PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI AND INTO NRN/WRN
LOWER MI/NERN IL.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA...
IVAN WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NWD TRACK MOVING JUST EAST OF FAR
SERN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PROJECTED LANDFALL VERY NEAR MOBILE
BAY/AL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND CG-LIGHTNING
TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY/APALACHICOLA...WHICH IS MOVING NWD AT 40-45 KT.
 THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY ROTATING AND SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE BY AROUND 17-18Z INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE VWP/S INDICATE
0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT.  AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SPREADS
NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN TO
SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM FAR SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY FAR SWRN GA BY LATER TONIGHT.

...MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
IA INTO NERN/CENTRAL OK/NWRN TX BY 00Z.  THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF DEEP ASCENT
EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.