[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151252
SWODY1
SPC AC 151247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
ANJ 40 WSW HTL 20 WNW BEH 25 ENE BMI 45 ENE UIN 20 S OTM 25 S ALO 10
NNE EAU 35 WNW IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
BVE 30 SW GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR
35 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK
60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 20 WSW SLN 10 SE GRI 55 E ANW 35 W HON
20 E ABR 25 NW AXN 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E
UNO 45 NW HOT 15 ESE TYR 50 SE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS
45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM
40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD
TO ERN IA/NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NRN IL...
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SERN SD/ERN NEB...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY REACHING NERN MN/NRN
WI BY 00Z...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  BAND OF 55-65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SWRN MN WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD TO NWRN MO...AND THEN SWWD TO A SECOND SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN MN/WRN WI...EXTENDED EWD ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER INTO CENTRAL WI. 

AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO DLH BY 00Z.  GIVEN FORECAST
STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENT 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST
AS IT TRANSLATES NNEWD INTO WRN/NRN WI BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN INTO CENTRAL TO NRN
WI THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NWD.  SOME CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.  DESPITE THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG KINEMATICS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN IA/NRN IL INTO MUCH OF
WI TO THE U.P. OF MI AND FAR NWRN LOWER MI.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINTENSIFY ACROSS WRN WI AND ERN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES ENEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD
ACROSS MO TO OK...WEAKER UPPER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR
HAIL POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE AL COAST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WITHIN THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF IVAN AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. LOW LCLS/ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TROPICAL
TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT WILL BE REALIZED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE
OUTER BANDS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.