[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150059
SWODY1
SPC AC 150054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW
HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 SSE AKO 30 N AKO 25 NE SNY 40 WSW MHN 35 NW BBW 40
W OFK 15 ESE FRM RST 25 ESE RST 30 SSW LSE 40 NW DBQ 15 NW CID 30
WSW CNK 60 SW HLC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 30 S INK
60 WSW SJT 50 SSW JCT 25 WSW HDO HDO 15 W SAT 50 NNW SAT 60 WNW MWL
35 NNW OKC 20 NNW END 30 W P28 40 SW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW
GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S
...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH
35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 15 SW LAN 30 E FWA 20 NNE DAY 20 N UNI
35 WSW MGW 15 NW DCA 30 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MOB 20 SSW TOI 35 WSW
AHN 25 SSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 30 N LOZ 15 WSW SDF 45 WSW EVV 20 SSW POF
20 NNW HOT 25 NNW SHV 40 SSE SHV 10 SE POE 20 SSW BTR MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST....

...NE CO/SW NEB/FAR NW KS...
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ERN CO AND NW KS. THE STORMS ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND AN MCS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO SRN NEB AND NRN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER SE WY AND
THIS IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NE CO WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR
RANGES FROM 55 TO 65 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A
SUPERCELL THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN NEB
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
RESULTING IN STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALSO...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SW NEB AND
FAR NW KS. AS INSTABILITY DROPS LATE THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MCS MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN
KS.

...IA/FAR SE MN/ERN NEB...
A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW IA AND
SRN MN. THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE
LINE IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND IS LOCATED IN THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. THIS IS
ENHANCING LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NWRN AND SE MN WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
MN...IA...AND ERN NEB. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

...WRN FL PENINSULA...
THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL BRUSH THE WRN COAST OF FL
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE JUST OFF THE WRN COAST
OF FL AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH THE
SHORELINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR TAMPA SHOW VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF 0-1
KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST-LINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.