[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150602
SWODY1
SPC AC 150557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
PLN 10 S MKG 45 S CGX 15 E SPI 55 S UIN 40 NNW COU 50 SSE P35 15 WNW
P35 25 NW DSM 35 N MCW 55 ENE ELO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
BVE 10 NW GPT 55 SE MEI 20 SW SEM MGM 40 S CSG ABY 20 WNW VLD 25 W
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK
60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 10 SSW RSL 15 W GRI 40 ENE ANW 15 SE
PIR 20 NE PIR 40 WSW ABR 60 W AXN 35 SW HIB 25 ENE HIB 20 N ELO
...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 25 NNW GGG 10 WSW
GGG 45 SSW SHV 45 SSE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK
30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM
40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES....

...SRN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA...
HURRICANE IVAN WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST OF AL...MS AND SE LA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN AL AND MS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE MS...AL AND FL PANHANDLE COAST.
IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA AS
RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER SPREAD INLAND.

FATHER WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA...THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN FL COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINBANDS CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.
THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WRN COAST OF THE FL
PENINSULA.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A L0NG SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS NRN
IA INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHOULD POSE
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF
THE LINE. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50
KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND
HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN IA...IL AND NE
MO...WEAKER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER
MOVING BOW SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
ERN WI...IL... AND LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS
THE REGION.

...N TX/OK...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO OK AND NCNTRL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE STORMS COVERAGE MAKING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.