[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 142004
SWODY1
SPC AC 142000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ FNB 50 N DDC 40 NNW LHX 30 SSE DEN
20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 35 NW MHN 30 WNW BBW 35 SSW EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 50 NNE ABI
20 ENE FSI MKO 40 N BVO 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT
20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S
...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH
35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC LAN 45 NNE FWA 20 W FDY 20 WNW CAK 35
E MGW 25 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND
15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25
SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SWRN
WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND BY HURRICANE IVAN.  ROCKIES
TROUGH IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD TOWARD WY/CO THEN TURN EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  MEANWHILE
IVAN WILL PROCEED NWWD-NNWWD ACROSS GULF PER NHC FCSTS.

PRIMARY SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WI ACROSS SRN MN...SERN
SD...CENTRAL NEB...THEN WWD TO INVOF E-W PORTION OF NEB/CO BORDER
AND CYS RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEN REINFORCED THROUGH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO CLOUD COVER OVER NWRN NEB.  SEPARATE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED FROM N-CENTRAL IA SWWD
TO E-CENTRAL NEB AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC FRONT...RELATED TO
EARLIER/ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ON BOTH SIDES
OF FRONTAL ZONE.  EXPECT INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS
UPPER-40S/LOW-50S F TO COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND S OF
BOUNDARY...500-1000 J/KG WITHIN 50-75 NM TO ITS N.  HIGHER CLOUD
BASES AND STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIONALLY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS S
OF FRONT INDICATE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND ARE MAIN CONCERNS.  ANY
SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND
JUST N OF FRONT WHERE SBCAPE STILL EXISTS IN AREA OF LARGE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR -- ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO -- IS
FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.  EXPECT
SFC HODOGRAPHS TO ELONGATE RESULTING IN 0-1 KM SRH 150-250
J/KG...ALONG AND JUST N OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.  HIGH-BASED SEVERE
TSTMS WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NWRN
KS...IN AREA OF STRONG SFC HEATING AND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE MAX.
REF SC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205.  COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
SRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT AIDED BY 40-50 KT LLJ.

...ERN NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY INVOF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WHERE LIFT/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED --
WITH FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. REF SPC WW 819 AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ERN NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL IA.  INITIAL THREAT
FOR DISCRETE STORMS WILL EVOLVE TOWARD MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR MCS
THROUGH LATE EVENING...SHIFTING GENERALLY EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS
OUTLOOK AREA...WITH POTENTIAL MAINLY BECOMING DAMAGING WIND.

...SW FL...
ERN-MOST EDGE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH
FL GULF COAST -- MAINLY S OF TBW AREA -- FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG.  LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND OF DISCRETE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG LIMITING FACTOR AS
WELL...SO AS IVAN MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA...VERY MARGINAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.