[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141624
SWODY1
SPC AC 141620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ 20 WSW STJ 55 S GLD 40 NNW LHX 30
SSE DEN 20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 45 SW MHN 20 N BBW 35 SSW EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 30 SW BWD
40 NW ADM 40 SE PNC 35 SSE ICT 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40
NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S
...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW
DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 20 W MKG 25 SE JVL 15 NE MMO 40
NNW LAF 20 W FDY 10 ESE CAK 45 ENE EKN 20 E NHK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND
15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25
SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL
FRONTS/WIND SHIFTS EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD INTO
CENTRAL NEB AND THEN WWD INTO WY...WHILE LEADING WIND SHIFT/COLD
FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM W-CENTRAL IA SWWD INTO NWRN KS.  EXPECT
FRONTS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER IA/ERN NEB TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING LOW
CENTER EXPECTED OVER ERN CO AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
DIGGING INTO NRN UT.  IN ADDITION...WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IA DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR OVER NRN IA/SRN MN.

AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SRN IA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER THIS
AREA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST FOR SUPERCELLS
/I.E. AROUND 30 KT/...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.  EXPECT OVERALL
EVOLUTION INTO WIDESPREAD/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARY
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB/IA
AND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING.

FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ACT ON AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  RESULTANT INCREASE IN SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF ENSUING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS ACTIVITY
CONSOLIDATES INTO AN MCS AND SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT.  INITIAL STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES. 
HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH DIMINISHING TORNADO POTENTIAL AFTER DARK AS STORMS
CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED.

...FL KEYS INTO SRN FL...
OUTER PERIPHERY OF STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF TORNADOES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN ROTATE NNWWD ACROSS
THE REGION.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.