[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141254
SWODY1
SPC AC 141249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
FRM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 35 E DBQ 30 SE CID 30 WSW LWD 10
NE SLN 30 NNW GCK 25 NE LHX 20 NNE PUB 20 NNW COS 15 SSW CYS 45 N
CYS 30 WNW BFF 40 ESE AIA 25 W BUB 35 NNW OFK 25 E FRM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE APN 40 NE MKG
RFD MLI 20 NE IRK 15 E OJC 15 SW ICT 50 S LAA 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ
40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N
63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 25 NNE ABR 40 N ATY AXN HIB 45 N
ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 60 S BWD
ACT 35 WNW LFK 50 WSW POE 20 NE LFT 35 NNE MSY 60 NW CEW TOI AUO 25
SW CHA 15 NNW CSV 50 ESE LUK 30 SE CMH 30 NNE PKB 60 N RWI 35 NE
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WILL PROGRESS EWD AND BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATE
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACROSS A DEEP FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. LEADING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR ESTABLISHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LIFTING NNEWD INTO SRN CANADA. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ID AND THE NRN
GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATER TODAY....AND OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE LEE
CYCLONE...NOW ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WILL REDEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PNHDLS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POCKET WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A FEW TSTMS
LIKELY. HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL GULF
WITH A BAND OF STRONG SLY MID LEVEL FLOW BRUSHING PORTIONS OF SWRN
FL.

...ERN NEB ACROSS IA...
COMPLICATED FCST SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION TODAY.
CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF IA WITH WEAK OUTFLOW/CLOUD BAND TRAILING SWWD INTO SWRN IA AND
SERN NEB. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO BE SUSTAINING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE
REGION AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM
NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION...INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 AND
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER 1000-2000
J/KG.

INITIALLY...STRONGER ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN NEB
INTO NRN IA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF HOT UNSTABLE
AIR AND POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
SERN NEB INTO WRN IA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE 
SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT MAY
ALSO GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND
DEEPENS.

FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM
SECTOR NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-1KM SRH
OF 150-250 M2/S2. EXPECTED LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT
A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES THESE LOCATIONS...IN ADDITION TO
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SEVERE
TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AND SPREAD NEWD
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS IA...THROUGH THE EVENING
SUSTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET.

...SERN WY/ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/CNTRL KS LATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG HEATING WILL ACT ON 
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO AND EXTREME SERN WY
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY BY EVENING. STRONG
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE MORE LIKELY GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND SOMEWHAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONTAL SURGE BY LATE
EVENING WITH THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NWRN AND NCNTRL KS.

...SWRN FL...
EXTENSIVE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IVAN
WILL BRUSH PARTS OF SWRN FL THROUGH THIS MORNING. KEY WEST RAOB AND
VWP DATA INDICATED A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50KT SELY TO SLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN THESE WIND FIELDS...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ISOLD/BRIEF TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN.
THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE AND ONLY WARRANTS
LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.