[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140542
SWODY1
SPC AC 140537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
GLD 25 ENE LIC 45 ENE DEN 40 ENE FCL 30 S BFF 25 SE AIA 30 NW BUB 35
E YKN 20 N MKT 45 NNW EAU 45 W RHI 25 S RHI 20 E CWA 35 E VOK 35 W
CID 30 NE FNB 35 WNW CNK 30 ESE GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD
MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA 20 SW LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60
WNW CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN
P24 BIS ABR 10 NNW ATY 55 SW AXN HIB 30 N ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW
TYR LFK BPT 20 S BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM HUM MSY 65
SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 25 NNE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN MN AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS SRN
NEB AND NWRN IA. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN WI SWWD TO CNTRL NEB. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MN AND NRN IA WILL IMPEDE SFC
HEATING TODAY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTION
ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S F AND STRONG SFC HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NEB TO WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z NEAR OMAHA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS UPON INITIATION.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE EXPECIALLY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IA
AND SRN NEB.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN AND NRN IA...LESS INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BACKED
SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 55 KT WHICH
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. 

...NE CO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS NERN CO AND
SWRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...INVERTED V WIND-PROFILES AND HIGH LCLS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE ERN CO
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL BY ABOUT 03Z
ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.