[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140054
SWODY1
SPC AC 140050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ELO 20 E MKT 55 WSW FOD 10 WNW LNK 40 SW HSI 20 SE MCK 30 W MCK 15
NE IML 30 SSE MHN 45 SSW MHE 20 NNE ATY RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MFE 40 ESE LRD
25 SSE COT 35 SSE HDO 30 NE AUS TXK ARG 20 E CGI 45 SW LUK 35 NNW
CRW 35 SW EKN 15 S SHD 25 SSE LYH GSO 15 WNW AND 40 ESE ATL 35 NE
MCN 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 10 SE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 50 E SOW
20 E GUP CEZ 30 NNW GJT 50 ESE RKS 30 SSW CPR 35 NE CPR 50 N CPR 35
SSE WRL 30 NNW LND 50 NE MLD 35 N BYI 30 NNW BOI 30 SW DLS AST
...CONT... 65 NNW CMX 55 NE EAU 15 SW LSE 25 WNW LWD 30 SW MHK 65 NE
AMA 55 W LBB 45 WSW INK 50 W MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL PLAINS....

...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SW MN TO FAR NW KS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO IN WRN MN. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100O
TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PRESENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW KS TO WRN MN. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE BEST
WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN AND SRN NEB WHERE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM FROM SWRN MN TO NW KS AND THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN
MN SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND
NRN MN LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE HAIL THREAT AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SW MN AND ERN NEB SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES. ALTHOUGH DECREASING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL
REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ERN MN AND NRN IA DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.