[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130055
SWODY1
SPC AC 130050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 20 ENE BRD
25 N ATY 25 WSW MHE 10 NW BBW 50 NNW GLD 20 NNW LHX 40 NNW LVS 20 NE
ABQ 40 W ONM 45 NE SAD 70 WNW SAD 50 SE PHX 25 SSE GBN 25 E YUM 15 S
BLH 45 NNW EED 30 SE ELY 45 SW ENV 20 N EKO 55 NW WMC 65 ESE 4LW 10
E 4LW 65 NNE 4LW 35 W BKE 25 ENE ALW 25 NNW GEG 30 NNW 63S
...CONT... 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD
45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE
LIT 15 NNE CGI 45 NNE SDF 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 30 SW PSK 40 E HSS
50 ENE RMG 25 ESE RMG 10 WSW ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 W AGS 35 WSW FLO 20
NE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NE MS/NW AL...
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN TN...NE MS AND
NW AL WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG
SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. THE BNA 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN MOSTLY BY OUTFLOW INTERACTION AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH.

...NE WY/SE MT/ND/NW SD...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NE ND EXTENDING
SWWD INTO NRN WY WITH ABOUT 750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AT 500 MB...THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR ERN WY
MOVING INTO SWRN SD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN SD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS ERN WY TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVER NE MT
AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET IS LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD. THIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS THAT
MOVE OVER FAR NWRN SD AND SW ND WILL HAVE A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL DUE
TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS
AREA AND WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
STILL...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEWD
ACROSS NRN SD AND ND. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.