[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130602
SWODY1
SPC AC 130557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 E
ELO 35 NW EAU 20 WSW FOD 25 W BIE 40 SSW HSI 50 SW EAR 25 SE LBF 45
NW BBW 40 WNW HON 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 W VCT 30
NNW VCT 40 SSE MCB 45 SSW LUL 25 SW CBM 25 WNW DYR 40 ESE POF 25 SW
MTO 10 E MTO 35 WNW DAY 25 SW ZZV 15 WNW PKB 10 SE BLF 20 S AVL 20
ENE AND 20 NW CAE 15 E CAE 20 SSE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 NNW ANJ 15 WSW
LNR 15 N FLV 25 NW GAG CVS 50 E ALM 35 SSW TCS 30 NNW SAD 25 SE INW
65 WSW FMN 50 ESE VEL 30 SSE JAC 45 SW MQM 50 NNW BOI 30 ESE DLS 25
NNW UIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE SEWD AS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS ALLOWING LOWER
TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS TO GATHER ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST ACROSS NWRN MN. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FIRST INITIATE. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...SHOULD PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF A LINE DEVELOPING SSWWD
INTO SE SD AND ECNTRL NEB BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z ACROSS WRN MN SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1500 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED
IN THE LINE. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
MN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE 45 TO 55 KT. IN
ADDITION...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TORNADO THREAT MAINLY ACROSS MN AND ERN SD. THE BEST THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN
MN WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES
EWD ACROSS MN...SERN SD AND ERN NEB DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR BOWING ECHOES. THE LINEAR MCS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING REACHING NW WI AND NRN IA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE
SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.