[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122005
SWODY1
SPC AC 122001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07
60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30
NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 20 WSW MDH 25 SW LUK 35 SSE
UNI 15 ENE BKW 15 S PSK 15 NW AVL 55 ENE RMG 35 WNW ATL 40 NW MCN 45
SSE AHN 25 W CAE 15 SW FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW
3B1 ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 N ATY 20 WSW MHE BUB 25 ESE
IML 35 S AKO 30 S LHX 35 SE RTN 15 ENE ABQ 25 SSE GNT 70 NW TCS 50
NE SAD 70 E PHX 40 NW PHX 45 E YUM 25 ESE BLH 35 SE EED 50 ENE DRA
30 W P38 35 S ENV 30 NNW DPG 55 W OGD 60 NNE ENV 40 NNE EKO 40 NNW
EKO 25 N WMC 65 ESE 4LW 15 NE 4LW 70 SSE RDM BKE 30 SE GEG 30 NNW
63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VLY...
LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50-60 KT H25 JETLET ROUNDING
THE BASE OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER WRN TN.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AND HEATING HAVE
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NRN MS.  THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN
6 C/KM /18Z BNA SOUNDING/...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE H7 AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE RISKS OF ISOLD PULSE
SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE HAIL/WIND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  

...NRN PLAINS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION WILL MIGRATE ONTO THE NRN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN SASK TO NRN
WY WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SEWD...REACHING A CNTRL DAKS TO
NWRN NEB LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE MINIMAL. TSTMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS WY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN
MT AND THE DAKS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES EWD. INITIAL
TSTMS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  

LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL FOCUS ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ABOVE THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION. THUS...TSTMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. 
THOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM.

..RACY.. 09/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.