[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15
SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK
35 SW ARG 20 N EVV 40 ENE 5I3 15 SW PSK 40 WNW GSO 15 SSE CLT 15 NNE
CAE 30 S FLO 25 SSW ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 55 SW SJT
45 ENE JCT 10 SE AUS 30 N NIR 10 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD
45 NNE ATY 55 N PHP 30 SSW CDR 30 S LHX 55 ENE 4CR 80 NW TCS 35 SE
GBN 10 NW CZZ 35 NW DAG 65 SW ELY EKO 55 SE 4LW 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM
55 ESE EPH 40 NNE FCA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR NRN MN...
AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN US IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO MT TODAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN MT EWD TODAY SHIFTING THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTO MN BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE
ORIENTED ACROSS ERN AND NRN MN BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN
AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE NEAR DARK AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAINLY IN NRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF CELLS CAN
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NEAR
SUNSET AS CELLS MOVE ENEWD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN US WILL MOVE EWD INTO MT
SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN
DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
SE MT AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IF IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BECOME NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE MT...SW ND AND NW SD.

..BROYLES.. 09/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.