[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121227
SWODY1
SPC AC 121222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 45 SE BJI
55 NNE ATY 30 NNE VTN 25 SSW AIA 25 SSE PUB 30 NW ROW 20 ESE ALM 35
SE GBN 40 W TRM NID 65 SW ELY 10 SSE EKO 20 NE SVE 10 N LMT 45 NE
RDM PUW 40 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK
35 SW ARG 35 E MVN 15 WSW DAY 30 SW CMH 40 WNW GSO CLT 10 WSW AND 30
SE AHN 25 SE AGS 40 S FLO 20 WNW CRE 10 S ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST AND
RIDGING SPREADS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND MAY AID SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CONUS...BENIGN LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING ACROSS ERN
CANADA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO RECOVER AND
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER. NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS VICINITY OF WY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SD BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING ASCENT WILL LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN VERY DRY SUBCLOUD AIRMASS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN
WY/MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING. A COUPLE OF
SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED
BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW.

...NRN MN...
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NRN MN. WHILE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND SERN MANITOBA...CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD INTO
LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO MN AND ERN
SD. IF STORMS CAN BUILD INTO MN...STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.