[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111948
SWODY1
SPC AC 111943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 40 SSE MCB
50 ESE LUL 10 SE BHM 25 SE ATL 20 SW CAE 15 E FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN
35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW
NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35
SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE
YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW
SJT 10 SE SJT 20 S SEP 30 W LFK 55 NNE HOU 50 SW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL
35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU
20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80
35 W S06 40 NNE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE APN HTL 35 NW
MKG 35 NW MKE 15 NW MSN 25 E LSE 30 N LSE 25 NE EAU 35 N RHI 25 NNW
MQT 115 NNW ANJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO A 19Z
POSITION FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR-NWRN WI-SWRN MN.  THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WHILE WRN
PORTIONS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SRN MN AND CNTRL WI.

WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED PER RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS OWING TO WARM
H85-H7 TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN THE STRONGEST H5
HEIGHT FALLS ARE TRANSLATING QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH ONTARIO...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS WILL LEAVE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO BE THE
PRIMARY MECHANISM NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS.  18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN NCNTRL/NERN WI.  LATEST
VSBL IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD VCNTY WAUSAU AND
THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS AFTER 21Z.  GIVEN 40 KTS OF
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
...LOWER CO RVR VLY NEWD INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ...
GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOW A PLUME OF 1+ INCH VALUES
STREAMING NEWD FROM OFF OF BAJA INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ.  DIURNALLY
DRIVEN TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AUGMENTED BY H25 JETLET OF 50 KTS. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS GIVING LARGE HAIL OR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.

..RACY.. 09/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.