[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111607
SWODY1
SPC AC 111603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 20 S BTR 30
SSW LUL 40 SSW TCL 25 NW LGC 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE OSC 10 SE MBL
JVL 35 NW DBQ 25 S MCW 40 SW OTG 20 N FSD 25 ENE BKX 60 ENE STC 50
WNW IWD 65 ENE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN
35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW
NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35
SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE
YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW
SJT 10 SE SJT 55 ENE JCT 20 NNE AUS 35 N VCT 25 SW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL
35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU
20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80
35 W S06 40 NNE 63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND MN IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UPPER MI AS STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS SRN MN
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TODAY...REACHING AN ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL
WI/NRN IA LINE THIS EVENING.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F IS
EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM UPPER MI INTO WI AND SRN MN.  12Z
SOUNDINGS AT GRB AND APX EXHIBIT STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8
C/KM ABOVE WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB...BUT THIS WARM LAYER WILL ALSO
TEND TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. 
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FOCUSED LIFT IN AN
ARC FROM CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI SWWD INTO WI WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PERMIT LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR RESULTING
IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THIS REGION WILL
BE ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION.  ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

...SRN NV/NWRN AZ/SWRN UT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN NV AREA.  12Z DRA SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1 INCH/ AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONGER
DIURNAL HEATING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ AND SWRN
UT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG. 
THUS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR EVIDENT IN
THE DRA SOUNDING AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PROGRESSING NEWD
ACROSS SRN NV. THIS WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.