[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111238
SWODY1
SPC AC 111234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MBS 25 ENE GRR
40 NNW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 15 WSW STC 45
ESE DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 10 SW DVL 45 NNE BIS 30 NNW
DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE
4OM ...CONT... 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30
W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 40 NW ONM 75 NW TCS 45 SSW SOW 25 S PRC
35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM ...CONT... DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW HOU 35 WNW LFT
15 SSW MCB MEI 50 WNW AHN 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN OF MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER TODAY WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST AND THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO. TSTM ACTIVITY THIS
PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WRN FLANK OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER
RIDGE.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND MASS TRANSPORT SHOULD
OCCUR NORTH OF THE BORDER...FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...A NARROW ZONE
OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM ERN WI ACROSS NRN MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODELS AND NCEP SREF DATA ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A SMALL REGION FROM NERN/ERN WI NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI
BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND CAPPING ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT MORE VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION THIS AREA IN THE
18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. WITH 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE ANTICIPATED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT RESULTS IN 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS MAY
REVEAL GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL AND A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE
ADDED TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN.. 09/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.