[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110544
SWODY1
SPC AC 110539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 40 SE DVL
50 ENE BIS 30 NNW DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE
EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 15 SSE JXN
15 SW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 40 NNE RWF 55 W
IWD 75 NNW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL
U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30 W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 15 SE
ONM 20 WSW TCS 50 NW SAD 25 S PRC 35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW
HOU 35 WNW LFT 15 SSW MCB MEI 20 NE RMG 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...

NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...30-60M...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...VEERED LLJ WILL
LIFT QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC WHICH APPEARS TO FAVOR
WEAKENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS A
RESULT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO
GENERATE CONVECTION.

00Z MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING OVER SRN MN/NRN IA...POSSIBLY NOT
REGENERATING LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FOCUS
ACROSS CANADA. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITHIN DEEPENING WLY FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR GRB
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1500J/KG WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  AS A
RESULT...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS REGION...AND
MAINLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.