[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100549
SWODY1
SPC AC 100544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ELO 45 SSW HIB 55 NNW AXN 35 S GFK 75 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 35 ENE CRP
...CONT... 10 WNW GLS 25 S POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW CAE 20 NNE
HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 30 NNE MSN
20 WNW DBQ 30 NNE GRI 55 N CAO 55 NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE
YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S BFL 45 SE U31 45 ESE EVW 15 SSW
BFF 25 NNE AIA 55 SSW PHP 40 NW RAP 70 NE BIL 45 NNW HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND APPROACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY PEAK
HEATING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN SHARPENING FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY 00Z.

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL
COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN.  THIS WILL PROVE
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A FAIRLY WARM PLUME OF
ELEVATED AIR SPREADS NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MN AND WRN
WI...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. 
LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
HEATING APPEARS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...INTO PORTIONS
OF NWRN ONTARIO.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BORDER IN SRN CANADA...THEN POSSIBLE SWD INTO NRN MN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WITH ROUGHLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.