[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081950
SWODY1
SPC AC 081946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
FAY 50 NNW FLO 45 W SOP 20 NNW GSO ROA 10 S MGW AOO 30 WSW ABE 15
SSE PHL 20 WNW ORF 40 N EWN 15 NE OAJ 25 S FAY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BBW 10 SE GLD 35
E LIC 30 NNW LIC 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 20 N GCC 50 NW COD 3HT 70 E LWT
35 ESE SDY 40 SE JMS 15 SSE ATY 15 NNE YKN 15 S BBW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TLH 20 NNE AYS
10 WNW CAE 10 SSW LOZ 25 SE LUK 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE ...CONT... 10 W
ART 15 WNW BML 15 NNW EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25
NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW
FHU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NC THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...

THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED
OVER EXTREME SW VA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR NWD...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND S OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N CNTRL
VA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES CONTINUES NNEWD. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTING NWD THROUGH
ERN NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA WITH A CORRESPONDING AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG...
PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL THROUGH NRN
VA WHERE THE FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THEREFORE
THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN VA AS STORMS
MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN NC.

OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER NWD AND MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC.

..DIAL.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.