[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101231
SWODY1
SPC AC 101227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE
ELO 30 SSE ELO 45 SSW HIB 45 SE FAR 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DRT 30 NE JCT
15 W TPL 25 E CLL 40 ESE POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW FLO 20 NNE
HSE ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO 15 ENE OFK 55 N CAO 55
NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S
BFL 75 ENE TPH 25 ESE SLC 35 ESE RKS 50 WSW CPR 55 SSE SHR 30 NNW
SHR 50 ENE LWT 65 N OLF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
PLAINS/NRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
THIS PERIOD WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW THAT WAS FRANCES AND NRN STREAM
TROUGH MERGER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BUT LEAVE A TRAILING
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN...
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME AND LIFT AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGHS WAS
ALREADY RESULTING IN SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FROM NEB INTO
SWRN MN THIS MORNING. THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAGNITUDE OF
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT OR SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT WILL STILL
FORM IN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS. MORE
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FOR
LONGER-LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NRN MN
BY EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THIS
AREA. A FEW BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITION NORTH OF THE
BORDER INTO ONTARIO BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.