[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081623
SWODY1
SPC AC 081618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 20 SE FLO 15 NW FLO 35 ESE CLT 35 SW GSO 30 SSE PSK 15 NE PSK 30
SSE EKN 20 WSW MRB 25 WNW BWI 25 N NHK 30 WNW ORF 15 NNW EWN ILM 25
NE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BBW 25 N MCK 35
NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 55 SSE LVM 3HT 70 E
LWT 20 NE GDV 40 S P24 20 SSW JMS 30 WNW AXN 15 ESE FSD 15 NE BBW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ART 15 WNW BML
15 NNW EPM ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 25 NE AYS 15 S AGS 10 WNW LOZ 15 NE
LEX 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25
NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW
FHU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC NWD INTO VA....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
FRANCES IN NC/VA.  ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL L0W AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE MOVING EWD WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS FROM
THE PAC NW TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  ONE TROUGH /NOW EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS TO ERN NEB/ WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
TROUGH MOVES E OF THE REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF SW MT WILL MOVE EWD
TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/WEAK LOW FROM
NW NEB TO SE MT...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE
MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.  LASTLY...L0W-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NWD  OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /LARGELY OROGRAPHIC/ MAY FORM ACROSS THIS
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NC/VA AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE NNEWD NEAR OR JUST W OF THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM NE TN TO WRN PA.  E AND
NE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC/VA TO THE E OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SC/NC.  DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS NC/VA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1500-2500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL NC...AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL VA.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER WIND
FIELDS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE WARM SECTOR.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.