[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081231
SWODY1
SPC AC 081226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
CHS 30 ESE CAE 20 NNE CAE 30 E SPA 15 WNW HKY 35 SSW BLF 20 SW SSU
25 WNW SHD 20 S MRB 10 NNE BWI 15 WNW DOV 30 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 15 NNW EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAN 25 SW RAL
25 E OXR 35 WNW PMD 20 SSE NID 15 NNW SGU 35 WNW PGA 55 NNE INW 65
SSW SOW 10 WNW DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TLH 35 NNW AYS
15 S AGS 45 SSE TYS 45 N CSV 10 NW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BUB 10 ENE MCK
25 SE LAA LHX 15 E AKO 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 35 SW BIL 20 WNW GGW 25 NE
ISN 40 W DVL 40 SW STC 25 SSW FRM 25 ENE BUB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...
REMNANT T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION OVER ERN TN/WRN NC AS OF 11Z IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
INTO SWRN PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG/ WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE LOW TRACK
TODAY...TO THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA
AND NE OF COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL GA.
REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SLY
40-50 KT 850-500 MB WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING
FROM SRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...LOCAL BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS E OF
CIRCULATION CENTER COUPLED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEED JUST
OFF THE GROUND IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLY STRONG NEAR-GROUND SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN CONFLUENT/SPIRAL BANDS ORIGINATING OVER
THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION. TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST ACROSS ENTIRE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
OCCURRENCE BEING INVOF OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN NC AND SRN VA. GIVEN
SYSTEM EVOLUTION TOWARD EXTRATROPICAL...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY BIASED TOWARD TIME OF PEAK DIABATIC HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY EXTEND NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT...OWING LARGELY TO PERSISTENT...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW.

IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO
MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED AT 1630Z OVER PORTIONS OF NC AND/OR
VA.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO WW 813 AND ANY
ASSOCIATED MCD/S.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.