[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080556
SWODY1
SPC AC 080552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
SSI 20 NNE AYS 35 SE AGS 35 WNW CAE 20 ENE SPA 10 SSE HKY 40 WNW DAN
20 SSE SHD 35 SSE MRB 30 S CXY PHL 10 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 40 SSW AGS
25 SE AND 15 N CSV 35 WSW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE ...CONT... 55
WNW 3B1 15 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SUX 50 ESE GLD
35 SE LAA 10 N PUB 25 NE CYS 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 45 SW MLS 10 SSW OLF
35 NNE ISN 50 E P24 30 S AXN 15 NNE OTG 35 SSW SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 SSE RAL
30 WSW PMD 20 WNW EDW 35 N DAG 25 WSW EED 40 NE BLH 50 E BLH 25 WSW
GBN 80 WSW TUS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TO
MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WITH THE REMNANTS
OF T.D. FRANCES AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM FAR NRN GA TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.  ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...MAINLY EARLY...WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ
WEAKENS/VEERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
CA/SWRN AZ AS SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE BENEATH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 

...SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVES NNEWD...A BAND OF 35-45 SSWLY LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA TODAY TO
ERN VA/DELMARVA AREA BY THIS EVENING.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SRN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA TO PA. 
MEANWHILE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CENTRAL TO
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC/VA AND DELMARVA WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUATION OF NWD MOVING CONFLUENT CONVECTIVE
BANDS. ALTHOUGH T.D. FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES /0-3 KM SRH AT 150-250 M2/S2/ WITHIN THE ERN
SEMI-CIRCLE COMBINED WITH MOIST TROPICAL PROFILES /I.E. LOW LCLS/
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-ERN SC/NC/SRN VA
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
EVENING.  MODELS ALSO SUPPORT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA /SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER NRN FL ON
TUESDAY/...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES BEING SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
TORNADOES.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.