[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080054
SWODY1
SPC AC 080050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15
N PIE ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 30 NW AYS 55 SSE TYS 20 S HSS 20 ESE GSO
15 NNW GSB 40 ESE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PFN 35 NE DHN
10 WNW LGC 10 N RMG 40 SSW TYS 25 E TYS 40 N TYS 20 N CSV 35 SE BNA
30 W BNA 40 N HOP 30 SSE MIE 20 WSW CLE ...CONT... 15 N HUL 25 ESE
MPV 40 WSW ALB 20 NW AVP 25 NNE CXY 15 NNE ILG 25 NNE TTN 20 NW BDR
15 ENE HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W AXN 25 SSE FSD
45 N BUB 15 NNW LBF 20 SSE AKO 10 NE FCL 25 NNE LAR 10 NNW GCC 40 S
MLS 20 ESE GDV 25 SSW FAR 50 W AXN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 E YUM 45
ESE GBN 20 E TUS 15 S FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LRD 35 NNW VCT
50 NW BPT 40 WNW LFT 20 S 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN
FL...

...CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL...
AT 00Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF
FRANCES LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA /40 SE ATL/.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ON A SLOW NEWD TRACK INTO NRN GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET...LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF FRANCES.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AREA 00Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
0-3 KM SRH VALUES ARE AND WILL REMAIN AT 250-400 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL
NC SWD TO ERN GA...WITH 150-200 M2/S2 LIKELY SWD ACROSS NRN FL.  

...NWRN NEB/PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD...
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT
INTO NRN WY...WITH THIS TROUGH LOCATED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN U.S.  AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN WY ENEWD
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER.  GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND LOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS /GENERALLY IN THE 40S/ ACROSS THIS REGION...A
DECREASING TREND FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 
HOWEVER...A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-45
KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. 
WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SD.  250-500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED MUCAPE AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ON THE EAST BY WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT A VEERING LLJ TOWARD 12Z
WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO ERN SD.

..PETERS.. 09/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.