[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071530
SWODY1
SPC AC 071526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 20 WSW CTY AYS 20 N AHN 30 NNW AND 20 NNW
CLT 30 WSW GSB 35 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 NW LGC
50 WSW AVL 15 NNE HSS 35 NW TYS 10 SSE HSV 45 SSW MSL 20 NNE TUP 30
NNE DYR 30 NNW EVV 25 E TOL ...CONT... 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 40 ESE UCA
25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 15 NNE DOV 15 NW ISP 15 ENE HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN
35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65
W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 NE YUM
30 SSE PHX 30 ENE TUS 10 WSW DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LRD 55 E CLL 35
SW SHV 35 SSE MLU 40 W BVE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM N FL NWD TO SRN NC....

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM THE SE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FRANCES...A RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS
THE CONUS.  THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS EXTENDS ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WA AND UPPER MI.  HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE WRN AND NRN CONUS IS RELATIVELY STABLE/DRY.  ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE SRN AZ BORDER ON
THE FRINGE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME...ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA...AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHERE A WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. 

...SE ATLANTIC STATES...
THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM W CENTRAL GA INTO
N GA BY TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER REGIME
ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD.  A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
BAND OF 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM AGL LAYER WILL PERSIST FROM N FL
ACROSS ERN GA AND SC...TO THE E/NE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION
CENTER.  MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST L0W-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST
FROM FL NWD TO SC...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CORRIDOR FROM CAE TO FLO WHERE DISCRETE STORMS INTERACT WITH AN E-W
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.