[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071230
SWODY1
SPC AC 071225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 NNE DHN 20 SSW RMG 40 ESE CHA
20 WSW AVL 20 ENE FAY 45 ESE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 25
NW ALB 25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 25 ESE DOV 20 S NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN
35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65
W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N YUM 35 SSE PHX
45 SW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 25 E CLL
30 SSW ELD 30 N HEZ 30 ESE HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 W TOI 25 NNE
CBM 30 NNE DYR 30 ENE MVN 30 WSW MIE 25 S DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SERN STATES...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION NEAR
THE AL/GA BORDER N OF DHN. NHC GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A SLOW NWD TRACK WITH CIRCULATION CENTER EXPECTED
OVER NWRN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN POCKETS
OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/
TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT
REGION AND APPALACHIANS. CO-LOCATION OF THIS INSTABILITY WITH
FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-350
M2/S2/ IN ERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED
MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG/SLIGHTLY N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS SRN
NC.

OTHER REGION OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO CIRCULATION CENTER OVER PARTS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL/NRN
PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL GA. HERE...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH WRN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE WW 808 AND ANY
ASSOCIATED MCD/S.

...NRN PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROGRESS EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...INDUCING WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER
 ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT /ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ/ AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.