[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061956
SWODY1
SPC AC 061952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
AQQ 25 E DHN 40 WNW MCN 45 E AHN 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE MLB 25
WSW VRB 15 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 45 WNW P07
65 W JCT 45 NW SAT 50 NNE CLL 30 SSE TXK 55 NE LIT 20 NE POF 10 W
MTO 15 SSE CGX 35 SW MBL 40 ESE MQT 120 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 ENE
CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL
MEI 20 WNW TCL 25 S HSV 20 NNE CHA 30 NW HSS 35 E SSU 15 SSE BWI 15
SSE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
GA...SERN SC... AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

...SERN U.S....

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES HAS MOVED INLAND JUST E OF
TALLAHASSEE. THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING NWWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A MORE NLY MOTION TODAY. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSISTS E AND NE OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WITH RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTAINING THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE...BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS THEN NWWD TO ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE GA AND SC COASTS. FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE
FURTHER TONIGHT. OVERALL THREAT MAY UNDERGO SOME DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
CONTINUING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND
SC.


...UPPER AND LOWER MI...


LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MUCH OF WHICH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING...HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE CNTRL UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI SWD ACROSS WRN LOWER MI AND INTO NW IND ALONG AND E
OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED /SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POOR LAPSE RATES. STORMS
NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO THE NRN HALF OF LOWER
MI ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY
FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI LIFTS NEWD
INTO SRN CANADA THIS EVENING...THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN
FORCING/CONVERGENCE. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...AND ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/POOR
LAPSE RATES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING
TO LIFT N OF THIS AREA WITH TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.