[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061629
SWODY1
SPC AC 061625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
AQQ 25 E DHN 25 E CSG 50 WSW AGS 15 E CRE ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 25
NNE AGR 20 SE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E
ABI MKO JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX ...CONT... 20 ENE CLE LUK
HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL
MEI 25 SE CBM 35 N BHM 20 ESE CHA 35 WSW HSS LYH 15 SE BWI 15 SSE
ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FL NWD ACROSS S GA
TO COASTAL SC THROUGH TONIGHT....

...FL/GA/SC AREA...
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS MOVING NNWWD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL S OF
TLH BY EARLY AFTERNOON /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION/.  LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 50-60 KT SELY FLOW 1-2 KM AGL OVER
THE NRN HALF OF FL/S GA/SRN SC...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH
IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 ACROSS AREAS N THROUGH E OF THE CENTER OF
FRANCES.  MODEST BUOYANCY /MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND MOIST
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE GA AND SRN SC COASTS WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CELLULAR
CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE OUTER ERN/SERN CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...GIVEN
THE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT GREATER BUOYANCY COMPARED
TO AREAS FARTHER N.  

...GREAT LAKES AREA...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NW IL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI
AS OF MID MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
ARE SPREADING NWD IN A NARROW PLUME E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN IL
TO WRN LOWER MI...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE WARM
SECTOR DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  EXPECT A BAND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST PROFILES AND FOCUSED
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH.  WHILE SOMEWHAT
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED LINE
SEGMENTS...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WARRANTS ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.